[Iter-X] 5/100days

Day5️⃣

Progress isn’t enough, so I’ll fill the word count with some random musings.

Today, I saw Bluesky (a decentralized social network project created by the original Twitter founders and engineers). They have a team of only 13 people, with just one frontend developer, and they use a shared codebase across all platforms. To put things into perspective, their service currently has31,951,353users (with an average of 0.6 new users every second). Their valuation is around $700 million.

The age of LLMs has changed a lot, and the first group to be swept up in it was developers. Now, most developers are using AI-assisted development tools in their workflows, which has helped improve efficiency and expand their capabilities. Many examples in the industry show that small teams have experienced a massive increase in efficiency. This is great news, but there’s also some bad news 😟.

Data shows that job opportunities for developers are sharply declining. Let’s look at the data from FRED (a source for U.S. and global economic data):

Based on data from Indeed (a job search site), software developer job openings in the U.S. had been rising post-pandemic (when interest rates were near zero), but after May 2022, they started to decline and have remained low since.

Now, many companies, including Big Tech, are cutting headcounts (even laying off employees). One reason is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rates haven’t dropped yet (and there’s little room for a decrease this year), and another reason is that companies are now working off the headcounts hired during the pandemic, which were meant to hedge risks.

We can see that as the FED started raising interest rates, job openings began to decrease (larger companies are more influenced by capital markets, where small differences in interest rates can have a big impact).

Let’s compare total job openings with software developer job openings:

It’s clear there’s a difference. Overall job openings have stayed relatively steady, and their decline is less sharp. However, if we focus on the area where they intersect, it shows that job openings were more abundant earlier, and now, the decrease is just catching up, which could level out over time.

However, there is some bias in the data, as it’s based on Indeed, similar to how a report on employment data from Boss Zhipin only reflects its platform’s data and may not fully represent the broader environment. Especially in AI-focused startups, there’s a good chance they’re not covered, but the trend is still noticeable.

I wonder what kind of major changes we will see in the next few years. Individuals and companies are always influenced by forces beyond their control. All we can do is improve ourselves, make ourselves stronger, and keep up with the times to avoid being left behind and discarded by the market. That’s all we can do. Looking back, the rise of startups might also be because each generation has people growing up in this environment, who understand what this generation needs and, with the right cross-disciplinary skills and timing, come up with new ideas.

I had 1v1 chats with several people today, including entrepreneurs from my industry and product managers. We exchanged ideas, and I could feel the thoughts behind some of the products from their creators. Some of them already have products out, and you can see their ideas and intentions in them. It’s pretty nice. Talking with competitors can feel a little weird, though, haha. Many people mentioned the concept of “moats” or “barriers to entry,” and I think that makes sense and aligns with intuition—there will always be someone entering the field. However, I remain optimistic. The competitive nature of the market itself shows potential. As for the travel industry, its market size depends on the depth of the field. Currently, most profits are coming from OTAs like Ctrip. It will depend on the vision and skill of each founder. Great products and the right business models will make a difference. But not every business is aimed at the large market; some small, beautiful products and teams are what many people pursue nowadays. Looking forward to learning from more experts 😎.

Back to the main point, I worked on part of the main trip page today. It’s still rough and needs more polishing. I really like two color schemes: one with a cool-toned palette that feels calming, and one with contrasting color blocks that gives off a cool vibe. I’m thinking of letting users switch between themes.

Here’s a summary of the current situation:

1. Prototype Design: 4%, ideas are coming together, currently working with 2️⃣
2. UI/UX Design: 4%, it’s in progress
3. Backend (Go) Development: 10%, currently paused, need to focus on 2️⃣ and 4️⃣ first
4. Client (Flutter) Progress: 0%, waiting for 1️⃣ & 2️⃣ to be completed

In the next few days, I’ll be focusing on 1️⃣ and 2️⃣.

If you think you meet the following criteria, feel free to reach out:

1. Can persist
2. Have dreams
3. Interested in this field